Marknadsinsikt: prisutveckling på gas
Last week was yet another bullish week for the gas price, which has now risen for five weeks in a row.
A combination of drivers has led to the increases for gas, but last week it was particularly bullish oil and carbon that pushed the price up. The carbon price has simply continued the uptrend it has been in since the start of the year (see the section on power). The oil price rose on bullish inventory figures from USA and a drop in US oil drilling activity.
Other drivers have also contributed to the gas price trend of late. The coal price has also been rising in recent weeks, due to strong demand in Asia. Like Europe, Asia experienced a hot summer, leading to greater demand for electricity for air conditioning. Efforts are also being made to replenish coal inventories before winter, leading to further pressure on the market in recent months.
We have written extensively about the French nuclear power stations. In recent years, and while other issues may have taken up more column space this year, the nuclear power stations are a problem yet again. We currently have the worst available capacity for the French nuclear power stations ever seen. This is leading to a need for major electricity imports into France, and greater demand for gas power and hence for gas.
French nuclear power stations are offline due to a combination of annual maintenance, extraordinary security checks and limited access to cooling water. According to EDF, the French company that operates the nuclear power stations, the capacity of the fleet will increase by almost 14,000 MW by 6 September (from just over 32,000 MW now). The problem is that this forecast has already been postponed many times recently.
Over the weekend ahead of last week, seven nuclear power stations were extended (kept offline for longer than expected), and over the weekend ahead of this week, six power stations were extended. This is in addition to the extensions that trickled in during the week. Overall, a bullish factor for the gas market.
This week started off bullish for gas with more maintenance extensions for French nuclear power stations and further price increases for coal, carbon and oil.
Bullish mood: The market focuses on factors that can make the price go up.